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Referencias Cientificas sobre Prospectiva y Scenario Planning

 

Articulos sobre prospectiva

Fecha de publicación: 20/12/2011


A continuación se citan diferentes artículos cientificos y libros relacionados con la prospectiva y el scenario planning. 

Bishop, P, Hines, A & Collins, T (2007), 'The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques', Foresight : the Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, vol. 9, no. 1, p. 5.

 

Blanning, RW & Reinig, BA (1998), 'Building scenarios for Hong Kong using EMS', Long Range Planning, vol. 31, no. 6, pp. 900-10.

 

Bootz, J-P (2010), 'Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 77, no. 9, pp. 1588-94.

 

Börjeson, L, Höjer, M, Dreborg, K-H, Ekvall, T & Finnveden, G (2006), 'Scenario types and techniques: Towards a user's guide', Futures, vol. 38, no. 7, pp. 723-39.

 

Bradfield, R, Wright, G, Burt, G, Cairns, G & Van Der Heijden, K (2005), 'The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning', Futures, vol. 37, no. 8, pp. 795-812.

 

Burt, G & van der Heijden, K (2003), 'First steps: towards purposeful activities in scenario thinking and future studies', Futures, vol. 35, no. 10, pp. 1011-26.

 

Cairns, G, Wright, G, Van der Heijden, K, Bradfield, R & Burt, G (2006), 'Enhancing foresight between multiple agencies: Issues in the use of scenario thinking to overcome fragmentation', Futures, vol. 38, no. 8, pp. 1010-25.

 

Chermack, TJ, Lynham, SA & van der Merwe, L (2006), 'Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics', Futures, vol. 38, no. 7, pp. 767-77.

 

Chermack, TJ, Lynham SA, et al. (2001). 'A review of scenario planning literature', Futures Research Quarterly 17 (2) 7-31.

 

Cheung, A, Kutcher, E & Wagle, D (2009), 'Strategic planning in a crisis', McKinsey Quarterly, no. 3, pp. 122-3.

 

Coates, JF (2000), 'Scenario Planning', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 115-23.

 

Cornelius, P, Van de Putte, A & Romani, M (2005), 'Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell', California Management Review, vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 92-109.

 

Coyle, RG Crawshay, R & Sutton, L (1994), 'Futures assessment by field anomaly relaxation : A review and appraisal', Futures, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 25-43.

 

e Cunha, MP, Palma, P & da Costa, NG (2006), 'Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight', Futures, vol. 38, no. 8, pp. 942-55.

 

Elkington, J & Trisoglio, A (1996), 'Developing realistic scenarios for the environment: Lessons from Brent Spar', Long Range Planning, vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 762-9.

 

Fahey, L & Randall, RM (1998): “What is Scenario Learning” en Fahey, L. and Randall, R. M. (Eds) (1998) Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.

 

Foster, MJ (1993), 'Scenario planning for small businesses', Long Range Planning, vol. 26, no. 1, pp. 123-9.

 

Frittaion, CM, Duinker, PN & Grant, JL (2010), 'Narratives of the future: Suspending disbelief in forest-sector scenarios', Futures, vol. 42, no. 10, pp. 1156-65.

 

Galer, G & Kasper, W (1982), 'Scenario planning for Australia', Long Range Planning, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 50-5.

 

Godet, M (2006): Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool. 2ed. Ed. Economica, Paris.

 

Hawken, P, Schwartz, P & Ogilvy, J (1982): Seven Tomorrows: Toward a Voluntary History. Ed. Bantam Books, New York, NY.

 

Kahn, H (1962), Thinking about the Unthinkable. Ed. Avon Books. New York

 

Kiely, J, Beamish, N & Armistead, C (2004), 'Scenarios for Future Service Encounters', Service Industries Journal, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 131-49.

 

Malaska, P, Malmivirta, M, Meristö, T & Hansén, SO (1984), 'Scenarios in Europe--Who uses them and why?', Long Range Planning, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 45-9.

 

Mason DH (1998): “Scenario Planning: Mapping the Paths to the Desired Future” (c6) en Fahey, L. and Randall, R. M. (Eds) (1998) Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.

 

Mason, D (2003), 'Tailoring scenario planning to the company culture', Strategy & Leadership, vol. 31, no. 2, p. 25.

 

Millett, SM (2003), 'The future of scenarios: Challenges and opportunities', Strategy & Leadership, vol. 31, no. 2, p. 16.

 

Mobasheri, F, Orren, LH & Fereidoon, PS (1989), 'Scenario Planning at Southern California Edison', Interfaces, vol. 19, no. 5, pp. 31-44.

 

Moyer, K (1996), 'Scenario planning at British Airways--A case study', Long Range Planning, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 172-81.

 

Narayanan, VK & Fahey, L (2006), 'Institutional evolution as an emerging focus in scenario planning', Futures, vol. 38, no. 8, pp. 972-92.

 

Navarro, J, Hayward, P & Voros, J (2008), 'How to solve a wicked problem? Furniture foresight case study', Foresight: the Journal of Futures Studies, Strategic Thinking and Policy, vol. 10, no. 2, p. 11.

 

Ogilvy, JA (2002): Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning as a Tool for a Better Tomorrow.  Ed. Oxford University Press. New York.

 

Phelps, R, Chan, C & Kapsalis, SC (2001), 'Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies', Journal of Business Research, vol. 51, no. 3, pp. 223-32.

 

Ramirez, R, Selsky, JW, et al. (2008). "Conceptual and Historical Overview". Part I. Cap 2. Pg. 17. en Ramirez, R., Selsky, JW, Van der Heijden, K. (Eds) Business planning for turbulent times: New methods for applying scenarios. London: Earthscan.

 

Randall, D (1997), 'Consumer Strategies for the Internet: Four Scenarios', Long Range Planning, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 157-68.

 

Ringland, G (1998): Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. Ed. John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Chichester.

 

Robinson, JB (1990), 'Futures under glass : A recipe for people who hate to predict', Futures, vol. 22, no. 8, pp. 820-42.

 

Roubelat, F (2000), 'Scenario Planning as a Networking Process', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 99-112.

 

Roubelat, F (2006), 'Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: Lessons from 2025', Futures, vol. 38, no. 5, pp. 519-27.

 

Sager, B (2001), 'Scenarios on the future of biotechnology', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 68, no. 2, pp. 109-29.

 

Schoemaker, PJH (1991), 'When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration', Journal of Forecasting, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 549-64.

 

Schoemaker, PJH (1993), 'Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioral foundation', Strategic Management Journal, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 193-213.

 

Schoemaker, PJH (1995), 'Scenario Planning -A tool for strategic thinking', Sloan Management Review, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 25-40.

 

Schoemaker, PJH. & Mavaddat, VM. (2000): “Scenario Planning for Disruptive Technologies” (c10) en Day, G. S., Schoemaker, PJH, et al. (Ed) (2000) Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies. Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.

 

Schwartz, P (1996): The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World.       Ed. Currency Doubleday. New York.

 

Spies, P (1994), 'Experience with futures research in South Africa', Futures, vol. 26, no. 9, pp. 964-79.

 

Stokke, PR, Ralston, WK, Boyce, TA & Wilson, IH (1990), 'Scenario planning for Norwegian oil and gas', Long Range Planning, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 17-26.

 

Van der Heijden, K (2005): Scenarios:The Art of Strategic Conversation. 2nd edition. Ed. John Wiley & Sons. Chichester.

 

Van der Heijden, K (2008): “Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis” C6 pag. 87-101 en Ramirez, R, Selsky, JW, Van der Heijden, K (Eds) Business planning for turbulent times: New methods for applying scenarios. London: Earthscan.

 

Van Notten, PWF, Rotmans, J, van Asselt, MBA & Rothman, DS (2003), 'An updated scenario typology', Futures, vol. 35, no. 5, pp. 423-43.

 

Varum, CA & Melo, C (2010), 'Directions in scenario planning literature - A review of the past decades', Futures, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 355-69.

 

Wack, P (1985), 'Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead', Harvard Business Review, vol.63, n5, pp73-89.

 

Ward, E & Schriefer, AE (1998), ‘‘Dynamic scenarios: systems thinking meets scenario planning’’, en Fahey, L. and Randall, R.M. (Eds), Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios, Ed. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.

 

Wilson I (1998): “Mental Maps of the Future: An Intuitive Logics Approach” (c5) en Fahey, L. and Randall, R. M. (Eds) (1998) Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios. Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.

 

Wilson, I (1994), 'Strategic planning isn't dead-- it changed', Long Range Planning, vol. 27, no. 4, pp. 12-24.

 

Wright, A (2005), 'Using scenarios to challenge and change management thinking', Total Quality Management & Business Excellence, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 87-103.

 

Wright, AD (2000), 'Scenario planning: a continuous improvement approach to strategy', Total Quality Management, vol. 11, no. 4/5/6, p. S433.

 

 
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